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☆ Take Five: Warming up this winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

☆ Take Five: That rate cut trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Markets are keen to trade rate cuts and big central banks are pushing back, shining a new light on upcoming data in that tug of war. Traders, anticipating roughly three quarter-point Fed rate cuts next year, will now turn their attention to Tuesday's inflation data to confirm their view on the outlook. A sharper cooling could fan the peak rate talk, fuelled by October's employment report, which pointed to an easing in labor markets. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ ONCE BITTENThe robust dollar suddenly appears vulnerable to the push and pull in the market's Fed rate cut bets. The data could also help justify, or challenge, recent remarks from BoE chief economist Huw Pill that mid-2024 could be the time for rate cuts.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Ping, Powell, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, BoE, Huw Pill, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Riddhima Talwani, Prinz Magtulis, Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Traders, Reuters, Beijing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, New York, Tokyo, Milan, London, Washington, September's, Germany, Europe, ITALY, Italy

☆ Big central banks hit pause, with rate cuts far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

On Oct. 23, Fed Chair Jay Powell said a strong economy and tight jobs market could warrant more rate rises. Interest rate futures show traders believe the BoE will not cut rates, now at their highest since 2008, until at least June 2024. "The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions," the ECB said, adding it would follow a "data-dependent" approach and future decisions would be based on incoming data. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told parliament last week interest rates may have peaked. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics8) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 4.1% for a fourth meeting in October.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Jay Powell, BoE, Jonas Gahr Stoere, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Chiara Elisei, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Riddhima, Sumanta Sen, Vineet, Amanda Cooper, Giles Elgood Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, UNITED, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, BRITAIN, Bank of Canada, BoC, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Washington, Japan, hawkish, dovish, NORWAY, SWEDEN Sweden, SWITZERLAND, Swiss, Gaza, JAPAN

☆ Take Five: War and peace of mind
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August as a surge in gasoline prices boosted receipts at service stations. Bar chart with data from LSEG I/B/E/S show the projected year-over-year growth in Q3 2023 earnings of S&P 500 industries. There have been reports the government is looking to increase its budget deficit to meet this year's 5% growth target. That said, inflation is still over three times the BoE's 2% target and growth isn't exactly stellar.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Philip Morris, It's, Banks, Amundi, BoE, it's, Sumanta Sen, Prinz Magtulis, Vineet, Pasit, Jayaram, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, Bank of America, Johnson, Netflix, Philip Morris International, Investors, HK, Law, Justice, Reuters, The Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Palestinian, China, Britain, Tokyo, New York, London, LSEG, Beijing, Europe's, Brussels, Europe

☆ Take Five: Volatile start to busy week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - Financial markets have got off to a volatile start to the week, after Hamas militants launched an assault on Israel at the weekend, triggering violent conflict that left hundreds dead. A bond market rout last week and currency gyrations already had financial markets on edge ahead of U.S. inflation numbers and the start of earnings season. Here's your week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rachel Savage in Johannesburg, and Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe in London. Amid these tensions, the IMF and World Bank are trying to boost their lending.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, gyrations, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rachel Savage, Naomi Rovnick, Wells, LSEG IBES, Rishi Sunak's, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Vineet, Karin Strohecker, Kim Coghill Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Financial, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Labour, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, UnitedHealth, Reuters, LABOUR, Conservative, Labour Party, MOROCCO Finance, Monetary Fund, U.S, Bretton Woods, IMF, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Tokyo, New York, Johannesburg, London, Central, Morrocan, Marrakech, China

Fleeing shoppers were ushered by security guards from the mall into torrential rain and towards a road with heavy traffic. We saw all the people run, run, run, we didn't understand what was happening," said 26-year-old Shir Yahav from Israel, who was at a designer store at the time of the shooting. [1/6]People flee following shots fired at the luxury Siam Paragon shopping mall, in Bangkok, Thailand, October 3, 2023. The mall said it had evacuated shoppers and staff immediately, stressing safety was of the utmost importance. "Siam Paragon would like to express our deep apologies for the unexpected event," it said in a statement, adding the mall would reopen on Wednesday.

Persons: Torsak Sukvimol, Torsak, Yahav, Devjyot, handcuffing, Panu, Pasit, Napat, Artorn, Athit, Kanupriya Kapoor, Martin Petty, Gareth Jones Organizations: Siam, Police, Thai, Siam Paragon, National, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Myanmar, BANGKOK, Bangkok, China, Israel, Thailand, Siam, Nakhon Ratchasima, Instagram, Sun

The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA

Farmers across the agrarian heartland that makes Thailand the world's second-largest rice exporter should be poised to benefit. These pressures on the sector, reported in detail for the first time by Reuters, are squeezing debt-laden Thai farmers despite tens of billions of dollars in subsidies over the past decade. Successive governments have spent 1.2 trillion Thai baht ($33.85 billion) on price and income interventions for rice farmers in the last decade, estimates Somporn. The average Thai farmer's income has dwindled. Unstable income for Thai rice farmersIn the years since Sripai followed her family into the paddy fields, the challenges have multiplied, but current prices offer a rare opportunity.

Persons: Somporn, Sripai, Danai Saengthabthim, Srettha Thavisin, King Chulalongkorn, Nipon Poapongsakorn, Thailand's, KNIT's, Yingluck Shinawatra, Yingluck, Devjyot Ghoshal, Pasit, Katerina Ang, Kay Johnson Organizations: Farmers, Reuters, Research, Knowledge Network Institute of Thailand, Bank for Agriculture, Agricultural Cooperatives, Agriculture, El, National Water Resources, Thailand Development Research, Nipon, Thomson Locations: Thailand, Kaeo, Chai, India, East, Asia, Africa, Rice, Chai Nat, Bangkok, Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam

☆ Crunch time after string of aggressive central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Major central banks have confounded economists with a string of interest rate rises that, so far, have moderated inflation without causing global recession. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,915 bps in this cycle. Reuters Graphics2) NEW ZEALANDThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May and has kept it there since. Reuters Graphics7) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady at 4.1% for a third consecutive meeting in September, the last under former Governor Philip Lowe. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, meets next week.

Persons: BoE, Macklem, Philip Lowe, Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Sharon Singleton Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, UNITED, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of, BRITAIN, of England, CANADA Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada, ECB, Norges Bank, SWEDEN Traders, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, Reserve Bank of Australia, SWEDEN, Swedish, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

Japan’s Q2 GDP grows fastest in more than two yearsMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, said the export-driven momentum in growth is unlikely to be sustained. Exports expanded 3.2% in the second quarter led by car exports and inbound tourism, while capital expenditure was flat. Strong U.S. and European demand has also supported exports while the post-COVID boom in foreign tourists has given the economy a much-needed tailwind. That boost in external demand, or net exports, added 1.8 percentage points to second quarter growth. It doesn't mean a strong recovery in Japanese economy," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Marcel Thieliant, Thieliant, Takumi Tsunoda, Shigeyuki Goto, Goto, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, TOKYO, Capital Economics, Private, U.S, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, The Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, China

☆ Big central banks hike again with end of tightening in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Major central banks are tentatively eyeing the end of aggressive interest rate hikes as price pressures finally show signs of abating. So far, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,865 basis points (bps) in this cycle. This may have marked the end of a 20-month hiking cycle, with economists polled by Reuters expecting the central bank to stay put for the rest of 2023. Canada's inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, kept its interest rate target at -0.1% in July, but shook markets by making its yield curve control policy more flexible.

Persons: Jerome Powell, BoE, Riksbank, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Tomasz Janowski, Toby Chopra Organizations: UNITED, Federal Reserve, ZEALAND, Reserve Bank of New, Reuters, BRITAIN, Bank of England, bps, Bank of Canada, BoC, European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Norges Bank, Swiss, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, NORWAY, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND Swiss, JAPAN

☆ Big central banks hike again with end in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

To date, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,840 basis points (bps) in this cycle. Expectations for a big rate increase have eased after latest data showed inflation fell to a softer-than-expected 7.9% in June. Markets think there's a 50% chance of a 25 bps increase in September, and an equal chance of a hold. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan, the world's most dovish major central bank, concludes a two-day meeting on Friday. The central bank is leaning towards keeping the dial set to dovish, Reuters reported last week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, BoE, Philip Lowe's, Michele Bullock, Riksbank, Kazuo Ueda, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Sharon Singleton Organizations: UNITED, Federal Reserve, ZEALAND, Reserve Bank of New, Reuters, BRITAIN, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, BoC, European Central Bank, Norges Bank, bps, Swiss National Bank, Markets, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, AUSTRALIA, NORWAY, Norway, SWEDEN, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

REUTERS/Jorge SilvaBANGKOK/NEW DELHI, July 17 (Reuters) - Indian tourists are streaming into Southeast Asia, cementing the world most populous country's position as a key growth market for a travel and tourism sector that is feeling the pinch of China's slower-than-expected re-opening. "Southeast Asia is obviously very well positioned for a lot of the growth that is inevitably going to come from India," aviation analyst Brendan Sobie told an industry conference last month. Tanes Petsuwan, deputy governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand said 1.6 million Indians were expected to visit the kingdom this year. Indians are helping to sustain a post-pandemic rebound for hospitality chains, including Minor Hotels, which has 45 properties in Southeast Asia with more than 6,000 rooms. Thailand's central bank expects 29 million visitors this year and 35.5 million in 2024.

Persons: Jorge Silva, Brendan Sobie, Tanes Petsuwan, Chai Eamsiri, Chai, Vinay Malhotra, IndiGo's, Sobie, Dillip, Pratyush Tripathy, That's, Somsong Sachaphimukh, Somsong, Pasit, Stefanno Sulaiman, Neil Jerome Morales, Robert Birsel Organizations: REUTERS, Jorge Silva BANGKOK, Thai Airways, Organisation for Economic Cooperation, Reuters, Asian Development Bank, Tourism Authority, IndiGo, Airbus, Minor, Bank of, Tourism Council of, Thomson Locations: India, Thailand, Patong, Phuket, DELHI, Asia, China, Thai, Singapore, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, Jakarta, Bangkok, Kolkata, Pattaya, Europe, United States, Thailand's, Bank of Thailand, Tourism Council of Thailand, BANGKOK, JAKARTA, MANILA

[1/2] The BYD Atto 3 EV car is displayed at the 39 Thailand International Motor Expo, in Bangkok, Thailand, November 30, 2022. Siam Motors is in talks with several Chinese automakers about potential partnerships, particularly for high-end electric vehicles, vice president Sebastien Dupuy said in an interview, referring to previously unreported discussions. Thailand is Southeast Asia's largest car producer and exporter, and its second-largest sales market after Indonesia. Japanese automakers are so dominant that for decades they have treated it almost as an extension of their home market. Thailand's pitch to Chinese EV makers has been its existing supply base – built largely for Japanese automakers – and readiness to provide incentives.

Persons: Athit, Sebastien Dupuy, Pasit Chantharojwong, Wall's Ora, Tesla, Isuzu, Hajime Yamamoto, Yamamoto, Goldman Sachs, General Narit Therdsteerasukdi, Narong Sritalayon, BEV, Chayut, Daniel Leussink, Kevin Krolicki, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Siam Motors, Nissan Motors, EV, Reuters Graphics CHINA, JAPAN, Toyota Corolla, China's SAIC, Toyota, Honda, Nomura Research, Reuters, Thailand's, of Investment, Wall, Thomson Locations: Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand BANGKOK, Siam, BYD, China, Thai, Southeast, Indonesia, Japan, Europe, JAPAN Bangkok, Tokyo

☆ What could break as interest rates rise?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sweden, where rates rose again on Thursday, is one to watch with most homeowners' mortgages moving in lockstep with rates. Reuters Graphics2/ REAL ESTATE: PART 2Having taken advantage of the low rates era to borrow aplenty and buy up property assets, the commercial real estate sector is grappling with higher debt refinancing costs as rates rise. "The single most important thing is interest rates. But not just interest rates; what it is equally important is the predictability of rates," said Thomas Mundy, EMEA head of capital markets strategy at real estate firm JLL. "If we were settled on an interest rate, real estate prices could adjust.

Persons: Richard Portes, Thomas Mundy, Banks, Florian, Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Nick Kraemer, Wagner, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, Tina Fordham, Chiara Elisei, Naomi Rovnick, Nell Mackenzie, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Kripa Jayaram, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Reuters, Federal, Finance, London Business School, Lombard, Federal Reserve, Casino, Sweden's SBB, Fordham Global Foresight, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Russia, Sweden, lockstep, London's, City, RUSSIA, Ukraine

☆ Japan will 'aggressively' push for women's participation after gender gap report
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, June 21 (Reuters) - Japan plans to "aggressively" push for women's participation in society, especially in politics, top government spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuno said on Wednesday after an annual report showed the country was struggling to narrow the gender gap. The World Economic Forum report measuring gender parity ranked Japan 125th out of 146 countries this year, compared with 116th in last year's report. In economic participation and opportunity, a category that examines labour force participation, wage equality and income showed, Japan was 123th, the lowest among East Asian and the Pacific countries. Its gender parity in political empowerment was one of the lowest-ranked in the world, at 138th, behind China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party this month compiled a plan to raise the percentage of its female lawmakers to 30%.

Persons: Hirokazu Matsuno, Fumio Kishida, Kishida, Satoshi Sugiyama, Pasit, Mariko Katsumura, Shri Navaratnam, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Economic, Japan, East, Investors, Norges Bank Investment Management, Nikkei, Liberal Democratic Party, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lower

☆ Major central banks not done with rate hikes just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Fed policymakers paused on its rate hikes since March 2022, and kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%, its highest level since August 2007. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%. It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan remains the world's most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Jerome Powell, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Thomas Jordan, Kazuo Ueda, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ransinghe, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Heiko Becker LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, UNITED, Fed, Bank of Canada, BRITAIN, Bank of, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Japan, dovish, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, Bank of England, AUSTRALIA, SWEDEN, NORWAY, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

☆ Japan upgrades Q1 GDP as business spending picks up
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Japan Q1 GDP growth upgradedHowever, with much of the revised January-March growth driven by inventories, rather than final demand, Tsunoda warned the recovery so far may not be as robust as headline figures suggest. The revised data showed GDP rose 0.4% in October-December, following a 1.5% contraction in July-September. Capital spending rose 1.4%, upgraded from 0.9% and roughly in line with Ministry of Finance data last week that showed manufacturers' business spending grew at the fastest rate since 2015. While consumption growth was downgraded on fresh services-sector statistics, "the broader picture is unchanged that spending on services such as restaurants and hotels contributed positively" to the January-March GDP expansion, the official added. Domestic demand as a whole contributed 1.0 percentage point to the revised first-quarter GDP growth, more than initially estimated.

Persons: restocking, Takumi Tsunoda, Tsunoda, Shinkin's Tsunoda, Kantaro, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sam Holmes Organizations: TOKYO, Bank of Japan, Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute, Japan, of Finance, Thomson

☆ Thailand's Pita tops PM poll as opposition leads opinion surveys
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] FILE PHOTO-Pita Limjaroenrat, Move Forward Party's leader and prime ministerial candidate, reacts during an upcoming election campaign event in Bangkok, Thailand, April 22, 2023. Pita Limjaroenrat, 42, the charismatic leader of the Move Forward party, jumped ahead of Paetongtarn Shinawatra of the main opposition Pheu Thai, with 29.37% support versus her 27.55% in a countrywide survey by Nation media group. Reuters GraphicsBoth polls showed the pro-military Palang Pracharat party, the Democrats and Bhumjaithai - current coalition partners - trailing the opposition by a large margin. Most experts believe Pheu Thai will need to form an alliance to govern and Paetongtarn on Wednesday hinted it could partner with Move Forward and ruled out military-backed parties. Separately, a Super Poll survey on parties released on Friday of 14,332 people also showed Pheu Thai leading with 139 of 500 parliamentary seats, followed by Bhumjaithai with 112 seats, and Move Forward with 63 seats.

In February, over 150,000 Chinese tourists travelled to Thailand, the latest data from the Thai Ministry of Tourism show - a three year high but still 85% below February 2019 levels. Chinese tourists used to make up 10% of European arrivals from outside the continent. Flights to Europe are up to 80% more expensive than before the pandemic, according to ForwardKeys, a travel data firm. Chinese tourists making a comeback is crucial for regional economies. Reuters GraphicsPre-pandemic, China was Australia's top source of tourists, but numbers following Beijing's reopening of borders have only trickled back.

☆ Take Five: An uneasy calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Kazuo Ueda takes over the helm at the Bank of Japan while U.S. bank earnings kick off and Switzerland's parliament debates the UBS-Credit Suisse tie up. 1/ BANKS' BOTTOM LINESThe uneasy calm that has settled over the U.S. banking sector after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will be tested as U.S. financials kick off their earnings season. S&P 500 earnings are predicted to fall 5.0%, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv showed. Reuters Graphics5/ SPRING MEETINGSPolicymakers and investors head to Washington for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring meetings starting on Monday. It will be the first meeting for Ajay Banga, U.S. nominee to run the World Bank and sole contender for the job.

☆ Central banks stick to rate hikes with eye on market turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Overall, 10 developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,290 basis points (bp) in this cycle to date. Reuters Graphics1) UNITED STATESThe Fed raised rates by a quarter point on Wednesday, continuing its most aggressive series of hikes since the 1980s. After setting its policy rate to 4.75%-5.00%, the Fed hinted it may soon pause rate rises. Reuters Graphics3) CANADAThe Bank of Canada on March 8 became the first major central bank to halt monetary tightening during this cycle. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its key rate by a quarter point to 3.6% in March, the highest since May 2012, but hinted rate hikes may be over for now.

☆ Take Five: Everything Everywhere All at Once
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Lender Credit Suisse will likely dominate a Swiss National Bank meeting and the Bank of England might place its inflation fight on hold. Some predict Credit Suisse could merge with peer UBS to rebuild Switzerland's reputation as a finance safe haven. Credit Suisse will also take centre stage when the SNB meets on Thursday. The Bank of England could be on the verge of wrapping up a 17-month campaign of raising rates to combat inflation. Labour market pressures - including wage inflation - are starting to soften.

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